Polymarket Bettors Skeptical of Trump’s Ability to Oust Fed Chair Powell or Governor Cook in

Prediction markets on Polymarket reflect low confidence in former President Donald Trump's capacity to disrupt Federal Reserve leadership this year. Bettors assign just a 10% probability to Jerome Powell being forced out as Fed Chair before his term expires in May 2026, underscoring the market's belief in the central bank's institutional independence.

The situation with Fed Governor Lisa Cook presents a more nuanced case. TRUMP has called for her removal over alleged mortgage fraud predating her appointment—a move without precedent for a sitting governor. Cook maintains that "for cause" dismissals apply only to official misconduct, not private matters. Markets currently price a 27% chance of her ouster by year-end, suggesting measured but not overwhelming concern.

Historical context tempers the novelty of such political pressure. A Cato Institute analysis notes multiple instances of presidential interference, including Harry Truman replacing Chairman Thomas McCabe in 1951 and Lyndon Johnson's infamous confrontation with William McChesney Martin over interest rates.